Thursday, May 4, 2023

19:00-21:00pm: Dinner

Friday, May 5, 2023

Venue: GM Room, Horchow Hall, 55 Hillhouse Avenue, New Haven, CT

08:30-09:00: Breakfast

09:00-09:15: Opening Remarks: Alexandre Debs (Yale University)

09:15-10:45: Roundtable: The Evolution of the Nuclear Order
Chair: Alexandre Debs (Yale University)


  • Målfrid Braut-Hegghammer (University of Oslo)
  • Keir Lieber (Georgetown University)
  • Or Rabinowitz (Hebrew University of Jerusalem)
  • Heather Williams (Center for Strategic & International Studies)

10:45-11:00: Coffee Break

11:00-13:00: Nuclear Proliferation

Chair: Jeffrey Lewis (Middlebury Institute of International Studies)

Paper 1: Mayumi Fukushima (Harvard University), “Weaponizing Weapons They Don’t Have Yet: Explaining Nuclear-latent Long Haulers”

Discussant: Etel Solingen (University of California-Irvine)

Paper 2: Eliza Gheorghe (University of Bilkent), “Divide and Conquer: Competition, Market Regulation, and the Spread of Nuclear Weapons”

Discussant: Matthew Fuhrmann (Texas A&M University)

Paper 3: Jiyoung Ko (Korea University), “Reassuring Ally: Revisiting the Sources of Credibility of Extended Deterrence”

Discussant: Nicholas Miller (Dartmouth College)

Paper 4: Reid Pauly (Brown University), “The Assurance Dilemma: Contingency and Control in International Coercion”

Discussant: Andrew Coe (Vanderbilt University)

13:00-14:00: Lunch

14:00-16:00: Arms Control

Chair: Arne Westad (Yale University)

Paper 1: James J. J. Cameron (University of Oslo), “Strategic Stability and Arms Control at the Cold War’s End”

Discussant: Brendan Rittenhouse Green (University of Cincinnati)

Paper 2: Stephen Herzog (ETH-Zürich), “Veto Players, Treaty Effectiveness, and Multilateral Nuclear Arms Control”

Discussant: Fritz Bartel (Texas A&M University)

Paper 3: John D. Maurer (Air University), “Arms Control as Coercive Diplomacy: Towards a New Theory”

Discussant: Jeffrey Lewis (Middlebury Institute of International Studies)

Paper 4: Jane Vaynman (Temple University) and Tristan Volpe (Naval Postgraduate School and Carnegie), “Dual Use Deception: How Technology Shapes Cooperation in International Relations”

Discussant: Todd Sechser (University of Virginia)

16:00-18:30: Break

18:30-20:30: Dinner

Saturday, May 6, 2023

Venue: GM Room, Horchow Hall, 55 Hillhouse Avenue, New Haven, CT

08:30-09:00: Breakfast

09:00-10:30: Nuclear Posture and Crisis Dynamics

Chair: Jonathan Caverley (U.S. Naval War College)

Paper 1: David Minchin Allison (Harvard University), “The Delicate Balance of Error: Perceived Counterforce Feasibility and the Nuclear Taboo”

Discussant: Jonathan Caverley (U.S. Naval War College)

Paper 2: Kyle Atwell (U.S. Military Academy-West Point) and David Logan (U.S. Naval War College), “Shadow Wars in the Shadow of the Bomb: The Link between Nuclear Weapons and Proxy Warfare”

Discussant: Shuhei Kurizaki (Waseda University)

Paper 3: Fiona Cunningham (University of Pennsylvania) and Kristin Ven Bruusgaard (Norwegian Intelligence School), “Escalate to Survive? Nuclear First Use in Contemporary Great Power Conflict”

Discussant: James D. Fearon (Stanford University)

10:30-10:45: Coffee break

10:45-12:15: Roundtable: Future Challenges to the Nuclear Order

Chair: Phil Haun (U.S. Naval War College)

Participants: James D. Fearon (Stanford University), Francesca Giovannini (Harvard University, Tufts University), Jane Vaynman (US Department of State)

12:15-13:15: Lunch

Session Formats

Conference sessions with the presentation of research papers (i.e. sessions 2-4) will proceed as follows: Each author in the panel will make a 10-minute presentation, then discussants will offer their remarks on their assigned paper for 10 minutes, and the rest of the session will open up for Q&A. Participants are encouraged to read all papers in advance.

Roundtables (i.e. sessions 1 and 5) will proceed as follows: Each participant will share remarks for 15 minutes, and the rest of the session will open up for Q&A.