Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg

Pinelopi (Penny) Koujianou Goldberg is the William Nordhaus Professor of Economics and Global Affairs and an Affiliate of the Economic Growth Center at Yale University.  She holds a joint appointment at the Yale Department of Economics and the Jackson School of Global Affairs. From 2018 to 2020, she was the Chief Economist of the World Bank Group. Goldberg has served as  President of the Econometric Society, Vice-President of the American Economic Association, and Editor-in-Chief of the American Economic Review. She is member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, and International Fellow of the British Academy. She is also recipient of the A.SK Award in Social Sciences, the Jean-Jacques Laffont Prize, the Bodossaki Excellence Award and the Bodossaki Prize in Social Sciences, and Guggenheim Memorial Foundation and Sloan Research Fellowships. She is a Distinguished CES (Munich) Fellow for 2024, Distinguished Fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), research associate at the National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER), research fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) in London, UK, fellow of the CESifo research network in Germany, and member of the board of directors of the Bureau of Research and Economic Analysis of Development (BREAD).

Goldberg is an applied microeconomist drawn to policy-relevant questions in trade and development.  She has exploited a broad set of methodological approaches – ranging from estimation of structural industry equilibrium models to reduced form techniques – to provide insights into the determinants and effects of trade policies, trade and inequality, intellectual property rights protection in developing countries, exchange rate passthrough, pricing to market, and international price discrimination.

Her most recent research examines the resurgence of protectionism in the U.S.; trade, poverty and inequality; the interplay between informality and trade liberalization in the presence of labor market frictions; industrial policy; and discrimination against women in developing countries.

International Trade Policies: Effects and Determinants

• Trade and Domestic Distortions: The Case of Informality, with Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Costas Meghir and Gabriel Ulyssea, December 2025 (NSF Award #1629124), Econometrica, Vol. 94, Issue 2, March 2026, pp. 573-618.
  • Slides
  • Replication
  • An earlier version of this work was circulated under the title “Trade and Informality in the Presence of Labor Market Frictions and Regulations”.
• The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations, with Pablo Fajgelbaum, Amit Khandelwal, Patrick Kennedy, and Daria Taglioni, American Economic Review: Insights, 6 (2), June 2024, pp. 295–312.
  • Slides
• Presidential Address: Demand-Side Constraints in Development. The Role of Market Size, Trade, and (In)Equality, with Tristan Reed, Presidential Address to the  Econometric Society in 2021, Econometrica, Vol. 91, Issue 6, November 2023, pp. 1915-1950.  [pdf]
  • Comments by Tim Bresnahan, Paula Bustos, and Dani Rodrik
  • Reply [pdf]
  • An earlier version of this work was circulated under the title “Income Distribution, International Integration and Sustained Poverty Reduction,” and is available as NBER Working Paper No. 27286, and World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 9342.
  • Non-technical Summary in VoxDev
• Is the Global Economy Deglobalizing? If so, why? And what is next? with Tristan Reed, prepared for the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA), Mar. 2023.
  • Slides for BPEA Conference
  • Summary
• The Return to Protectionism, with Pablo Fajgelbaum, Amit Khandelwal, and Patrick Kennedy. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Feb. 2020, Lead Article and Editor’s Choice.
  • Summary in Microeconomic Insights
  • Non-technical Summary in VoxEU
  • Update incl. 2019 Tariff Waves
  • Slides
  • Other Coverage: LA Times, Economist 2019.04, Economist 2019.05, Trade Talks Podcast
• Prices, Markups and Trade Reform, with Jan De Loecker, Amit Khandelwal and Nina Pavcnik, Econometrica, Vol.84, 2, March 2016, pp. 445-510.
  • Non-technical summary in Microeconomic Insights February 1, 2016: http://microeconomicinsights.org/prices-markups-and-trade-reform/
• The Effects of Trade Policy, with Nina Pavcnik, prepared for the Handbook of Commercial Policy, edited by K. Bagwell and R. Staiger, 1st Edition, Vol. 1A, Chapter 3, 2016.
• Variety In, Variety Out: Imported Input and Product Scope Expansion in India, (with Amit Khandelwal and Nina Pavcnik), in J. Bhagwati and A. Panagariya eds., Reforms and Economic Transformation in India, pp. 168-199, Oxford University Press 2012.
• Imported Intermediate Inputs and Domestic Product Growth: Evidence from India, with A. Khandelwal, N. Pavcnik and P. Topalova, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 125(4), 2010, pp. 1727-67.
• Intellectual Property Rights Protection in Developing Countries: The Case of Pharmaceuticals, Journal of the European Economic Association, Volume 8, April-May 2010, pp. 326-53.
  • This is the published version of my Alfred Marshall Lecture delivered at the European Congress in Barcelona, August 2009.
• Multi-product Firms and Product Turnover in the Developing World: Evidence from India, with A. Khandelwal, N. Pavcnik and P. Topalova,  Review of Economics and Statistics, 92(4), 2010, pp. 1042‐1049.
  • This paper is a shorter version of a paper that was circulated earlier and is now available as NBER Working Paper No. 14127. For more details on the data and estimation, you can also read the Web Appendix to this paper: Web Appendix
• Trade Liberalization and Imported Inputs, with A. Khandelwal, N. Pavcnik and P. Topalova,  American Economic Review, May 2009, pp. 494-500.
• Estimating the Effects of Global Patent Protection in Pharmaceuticals: A Case Study of Quinolones in India, with S. Chaudhuri and P. Jia, American Economic Review, Dec. 2006, pp. 1477-1513.
• Trade Policy and Industrial Sector Responses in the Developing World: Interpreting the Evidence, Comment on E. Erdem and J. Tybout, Brookings Trade Forum, 2003.
• Protection for Sale: An Empirical Investigation, with G. Maggi, American Economic Review, Dec. 1999, pp. 1135-55.
• Product Differentiation and Oligopoly in International Markets: The Case of the U.S. Automobile Industry, Econometrica, Jul. 1995, pp. 891-951.
• Causes and Consequences of the Export Enhancement Program, with M. Knetter, in: R. Feenstra (ed.): Effects of U.S. Trade Protection and Promotion Policies, 1997, pp. 273-96.
• Strategic Export Promotion in the Absence of Government Precommitment, International Economic Review, May 1995, pp. 407-26.

• Trade Policies in the U.S. Automobile Industry, Japan and the World Economy, May 1994, pp. 175-208.

   

Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Pricing-to-Market and International Price Discrimination

• A Structural Approach to Identifying the Sources of Local-Currency Price Stability, with Rebecca Hellerstein,  Review of Economic Studies, Jan. 2013, 80(1), pp. 175-210.
• A Structural Approach to Explaining Incomplete Exchange Rate  Pass-through and Pricing-To-Market, with R. Hellerstein, American Economic Review, May 2008, pp. 423-29. Pre-publication version can be read here: Passthrough_Short
• Market Integration and Convergence to the Law of One Price: Evidence from the European Car Market, with F. Verboven, Journal of International Economics, Jan. 2005, pp. 49-73.
• Cross-Country Price Dispersion in the Euro Era: A Case Study of the European Car Market, with F. Verboven, Economic Policy, October 2004 (copy available only through Economic Policy; for preliminary version see Working Papers).
• The Evolution of Price Dispersion in European Car Markets, with F. Verboven, Review of Economic Studies, Oct. 2001, pp. 811-48.
• Reprinted in P. Joskow and M. Waterson (eds.) Empirical Industrial Organization, Edward Elgar, 2004.
• Measuring the Intensity of Competition in Export Markets, with M. Knetter, Journal of International Economics, Feb. 1999, pp. 27-60.
• Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?, with M. Knetter, Journal of Economic Literature, Sep. 1997, pp. 1243-72.

Distributional Effects of Trade Liberalization

• Distributional Effects of Globalization in Developing Countries, with N. Pavcnik, Journal of Economic Literature, March 2007, 45(1), pp. 39-82.
• Trade, Wages, and the Political Economy of Trade Protection: Evidence from the Colombian Trade Reforms, with N. Pavcnik, Journal of International Economics, May 2005, pp. 75-105.
• Short term consequences of trade reform for industry employment and wages: Survey of evidence from Colombia, with N. Pavcnik, May 2005, World Economy 28(7), 923-939.
• Trade Reforms and Wage Inequality in Colombia, with O. Attanasio and N. Pavcnik, Journal of Development Economics, 74, August 2004, pp. 331-366.
• Trade, Inequality, and Poverty: What Do We Know? Evidence from Recent Trade Liberalization Episodes in Developing Countries, with N. Pavcnik, Brookings Trade Forum, 2004, pp. 223-269 (also available as NBER Working Paper #10593).
• Trade Liberalization and Industry Wage Structure: Evidence from Brazil, with N. Pavcnik, A. Blom, and N. Schady, World Bank Economic Review, 18(3), 2004, pp. 319-344.
• The Effects of the Colombian Trade Liberalization on Urban Poverty, with N. Pavcnik, August 2004, forthcoming in A. Harrison (ed.), Globalization and Poverty, NBER.
• The Response of the Informal Sector to Trade Liberalization, with N. Pavcnik, Journal of Development Economics, 72, Dec. 2003, pp. 463-496.

Other Papers in Applied Microeconomics

• Aggregate Implications of Barriers to Female Entrepreneurship, with Gaurav Chiplunkar, Econometrica, Vol. 92, Issue 6, November 2024, pp. 1801-1835. [pdf]
  • Non-technical Summary in VoxDev
• Measuring Human Capital Using Global Learning Data, with Noam Angrist, Simeon Djankov and Harry A. Patrinos, Nature, March 10, 2021.
  • Supplement with additional details
  • Non-technical Summary in VoxEU
  • For longer version, see Policy Research Working Paper Series 8742, The World Bank, 2020.
• Why is Growth in Developing Countries so Hard to Measure?, with Noam Angrist and Dean Jolliffe, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 35, No. 3, Summer 2021, pp. 215-42.
• Gendered Laws and Women in the Workforce, with Marie Hyland and Simeon Djankov, American Economic Review: Insights, Vol. 2, No. 4, Dec. 2020, pp. 475-90.
• The Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: An Optimistic Preliminary Account, with Tristan Reed,  Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, June 25, 2020.
  • Update – December 2020
• Firm Performance in a Global Market, with Jan De Loecker, Annual Review of Economics, Vol. 6, Aug. 2014, pp. 201-227.
• Credit Constraints in the Market for Consumer Durables: Evidence from Micro Data on Car Loans, with O. Attanasio and E. Kyriazidou, International Economic Review, May 2008, pp. 401-36  (earlier version available as NBER Working Paper No. 7694)
• The Effects of the Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards in the Automobile Industry, Journal of Industrial Economics, Mar. 1998, pp. 1-33.
• Dealer Price Discrimination in New Car Purchases: Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, Journal of Political Economy, Jun. 1996, pp. 622-54.
• The Effects of Financial Deregulation on Consumption, with T. Bayoumi. Greek Economic Review, Vol. 12/2, Dec. 1990. (Also available as IMF Working Paper #89-88, Oct. 1989).

• Globalization in crisis: Confronting a new economic reality, published version of UN-WIDER Lecture, delivered in Oslo, October 2023.
• Supervised World Development Report 2020: “Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains” at the World Bank.
• The US and China Must Learn to Coexist, Project Syndicate, May 20, 2026.
• America’s Permanent Tariff Uncertainty Will Drive Up Costs, Project Syndicate, March 18, 2026.
• AI and the Future of Education, Project Syndicate, January 22, 2026.
• The State of competition: Why market power has risen – and why antitrust alone won’t fix it, with Jan De Loecker, VoxEU, January 2, 2026.
• Why the US Economy Has Remained Stronger Than Expected, Project Syndicate, November 19, 2025.
• How Gender Equality Boosts Economic Growth, Project Syndicate, September 23, 2025.
• Why Markets May Soon Call America’s Tariff Bluff, Project Syndicate, July18, 2025.
• America’s Retreat is Europe’s Big Opportunity, Project Syndicate, June 3, 2025.
• Making Sense of the Tariff Chaos, Project Syndicate, March 20, 2025.
• The Trade Shifts Redefining Economic Development, with Michele Ruta, Project Syndicate, January 22, 2025.
• Are Tariffs Worth it?, Project Syndicate, November 20, 2024.
• What a Successful Industrial Policy Needs, Project Syndicate, September 17, 2024.
• Is Greece’s Six-Day Work Week a Harbinger?, Project Syndicate, July 19, 2024.
• The High Costs of the New US Tariffs on Chinese EVs, Project Syndicate, May 22, 2024.
• Why Have Developing Countries Soured on Multilateralism?, Project Syndicate, March 19, 2024.
• Why Are Americans Dissatisfied Despite a Strong Economy?, Project Syndicate, January 19, 2024.
• What Economics Was Missing, Project Syndicate, November 21, 2023.
• Globaler Süden auf Richtungssuche, Handelsblatt Nr. 212, November 2, 2023.
• Protectionism Started the Geopolitical Fire, Project Syndicate, September 19, 2023.
• How to get industrial policy right – and wrong, Financial Times, August 15, 2023.
• An Immigration Wake-Up Call, Project Syndicate, July 19, 2023.
• Growing Threats to Global Trade, with T. Reed, IMF Finance & Development, June 2023.
• The Climate Elephants in the Room, Project Syndicate, May 19, 2023.
• What the World Bank Can Do About Climate Change, Project Syndicate, March 21, 2023.
• Three Cheers for Hybrid Work, Project Syndicate, January 30, 2023.
• Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg Says More…, January 10, 2023.
• America Should Rethink Its Economic War on China, Project Syndicate, November 17, 2022.
• What Stopped Globalization?, Project Syndicate, September 20, 2022.
• Rate Hikes Alone Won’t Curb Inflation, Project Syndicate, July 21, 2022.
• To Fight Inflation, Fight Protectionism, Project Syndicate, May 12, 2022.
• The Loss of Human Capital in Ukraine, VoxEU, April 22, 2022.
• Lose-Lose Trade Sanctions, Project Syndicate, March 17, 2022.
• Who is Winning the Trade War?, Project Syndicate, January 20, 2022.
• Averting Statistical Tragedies, Project Syndicate, November 17, 2021.
• Afghanistan’s Forsaken Women, Project Syndicate, September 13, 2021.
• Forget the Vaccine Patent Waiver, Project Syndicate, May 13, 2021.
• Tackling the Global Learning Crisis, Project Syndicate, March 18, 2021.
• The Problem with the COVID Convergence, Project Syndicate, January 28, 2021.
• What COVID Is Costing Women, Project Syndicate, November 19, 2020.
• How Poverty Reduction Can Survive Deglobalization, Project Syndicate, Sept. 17, 2020.
• Keep Borders Open, Project Syndicate, July 17, 2020.
• The New Empty Argument Against Trade, Project Syndicate, May 12, 2020.
• A Silent Hero of the Coronavirus Crisis, Project Syndicate, March 17, 2020.
• Free trade is under fire but we must fight for its preservation, Financial Times, September 23, 2019.
• The Future of Trade,  IMF, Finance & Development, June 2019, Vol. 56, No. 2.
• What next for global trade? Project Syndicate, January 10, 2019.