Fundamental principles and techniques of probabilistic thinking, statistical modeling, and data analysis. Essentials of probability: conditional probability, random variables, distributions, law of large numbers, central limit theorem, Markov chains. Statistical inference with emphasis on the Bayesian approach: parameter estimation, likelihood, prior and posterior distributions, Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Introduction to regression and linear models. Computers are used throughout for calculations, simulations, and analysis of data.